The US states of Tennessee, Florida, and Louisiana have linked hiring, promotion, and dismissal of principals (head teachers) to student test scores. A recent paper in Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis modelled three approaches to assessing principal performance through student test measures and compared these with each other and against non-test methods.
Approach one: school effectiveness
This method takes a simple measure of school effectiveness and attributes this performance to the principal. Drawbacks of this approach include that it does not account for factors such as neighbourhood effects, student backgrounds, and the legacy of previous leaders.
Approach two: relative within-school effectiveness
This method compares school effectiveness under different principals. It has the advantage of accounting for neighbourhood effects, but it does not reflect changes in challenges over time and can only be used where schools have data for more than one principal.
Approach three: school improvement
This method measures school improvement between years. Unlike methods one and two, this does not assume that principal performance is reflected immediately in student scores. A main difficulty of this method is that it requires a principal to serve enough time to enable multiple-year comparisons.
The researchers analysed data on 523 principals in Florida public schools from 2003 to 2011. The three methods provided different results (particularly method three, which rarely correlated with the other two). Compared against non-test school outcome measures, method one showed the best correlation and method three was negatively correlated.
Source: Using student test scores to measure principal performance (2015), Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis